Britain's Dangerous Seats [an extract from http://psephologist.blog.com]

I have already compiled a list on this blog page of the 25 safest seats in the House of Commons. In fact they are so secure that they could be described as “ultra safe”. Clearly, if there are indeed safe seats in which the incumbent MP or party only has to turn up to win the next contest at such a constituency, it must logically follow that various seats are the opposite of “safe”……. dangerous, in other words.
Dangerous is a slighty peculiar word as it suggests that the seat at Westminster is bad for the health of its user. That might be pushing melodrama a tad too far, but there are certainly a whole host of constituencies where the MP’s tenure is indeed tenuous as he or she won election to parliament in May 2010 on the back of a wafer-thin majority.
In fact, not only was the eventual outcome of the last British general election rather close, at least in so far as no party was able to command an overall majority, but I discovered whilst rummaging through all the results that there was a huge amount of constituency contests which were also mighty close. I have therefore taken the trouble to record the following forty-one constituencies where the winning margin didn’t even exceed one thousand votes.
Most of these seats will form the heart of the electoral battleground at the next national poll as they will be termed as “key marginals”. Obviously every political party aims in theory to win every constituency that they contest, but I have highlighted the party which will be targeting each of the listed seats. However, although about half of the listed seats are indeed dangerous and definitely up for grabs, the statistics are also slightly misleading. For example, if Labour was to enjoy any kind of swing at the next general election (and the consensus of opinion is that they will recover from their 2010 setback) then the seats where Labour won narrowly in 2010 will be much safer in 2015.
Similarly, there are many constituencies not included where the current parliamentary majority may be several thousand, but again a notable swing to Labour could place many other incumbents in peril at the next national beauty contest. Therefore, the enclosed list comprises the forty-one seats that incurred the slenderest winning margin in 2010. It does not automatically follow that in every instance, such constituencies will produce a photo-finish again. Clear as mud?
Amber Valley: Conservative majority – 536; Labour target
Ashfield: Labour majority – 192; Liberal Democrat target
Bolton West: Labour majority – 92; Conservative target
Bradford East: Liberal Democrat majority – 365; Labour target
Broxtowe: Conservative majority – 389; Labour target
Camborne and Redruth: Conservative majority – 66; Liberal Democrat target
Cardiff North: Conservative majority – 194; Labour target
Carlisle: Conservative majority – 853; Labour target
Chesterfield: Labour majority – 549; Liberal Democrat target
Derby North: Labour majority – 613; Conservative target
Dorset Mid and Poole North: Liberal Democrat majority – 269; Conservative target
Dudley North: Labour majority – 649; Conservative target
Edinburgh South: Labour majority – 316; Liberal Democrat target
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Sinn Fein majority – 4; Unionist target
Great Grimsby: Labour majority – 714; Conservative target
Hampstead and Kilburn: Labour majority – 42; a Conservative and Liberal Democrat target
Hendon: Conservative majority – 106; Labour target
Hull North: Labour majority – 641; Liberal Democrat target
Lancaster and Fleetwood: Conservative majority – 333; Labour target
Morecambe and Lunesdale: Conservative majority – 866; Labour target
Newton Abbot: Conservative majority – 523; Liberal Democrat target
Norwich South: Liberal Democrat majority – 310; Labour target
Oldham East and Saddleworth: Labour majority – 103 [The majority increased in 2011]; Liberal Democrat target
Oxford West and Abingdon: Conservative majority – 176; Liberal Democrat target
Rochdale: Labour majority – 889; Liberal Democrat target
Sheffield Central: Labour majority – 165; Liberal Democrat target
Sherwood: Conservative majority – 214; Labour target
Solihull: Liberal Democrat majority – 175; Conservative target
Southampton Itchen: Labour majority – 192; Conservative target
Stockton South: Conservative majority – 332; Labour target
Swansea West: Labour majority – 504; Liberal Democrat target
Telford: Labour majority – 978; Conservative target
Thurrock: Conservative majority – 92; Labour target
Truro and Falmouth: Conservative majority – 435; Liberal Democrat target
Walsall North: Labour majority – 990; Conservative target
Warwickshire North: Conservative majority – 54; Labour target
Waveney: Conservative majority – 769; Labour target
Weaver Vale: Conservative majority – 991; Labour target
Wells: Liberal Democrat majority – 800; Conservative target
Wirral South: Labour majority – 531; Conservative target
Wolverhampton South West: Conservative majority – 691; Labour target
*See also http://psephologist.blog.com