Justifying The Unjustifiable

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**This beautiful blogsite is primarily a vehicle for uploading extracts from my many informative, insightful, insurrectionary, quality reference books. I wish for this site to raise my profile amongst the chattering classes, so that maybe one day I too can be invited onto radio discussion shows to offload my twopence worth. At present, British radio and television shows are over-populated with the same old talking heads. Is Matthew Parris really the voice of England? Does Stephen Fry hold the monopoly on wisdom?

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Yours insincerely

'Gary Watton' xo

Monday, 2 July 2012

The Ashes, 1945-2005, A Complete Record [advert]


The Ashes, 1945-2005: A Complete Record
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Ashes-1945-2005-Complete-Record/dp/0955575699

The book is a statistical history of the Ashes conflicts from the 1946 tour to Australia through to the 2005 series, though there is also a page dedicated to the 2006-7 whitewash, as well as pages on non-Ashes test
matches; and the County Championship and Sheffield Shield winners from 1945-2005.
The publication ends with a fascinating piece on the importance or otherwise of winning the toss in Ashes test matches. However the bulk of the book concerns itself with the 160+ test matches and merely records all the scorecards. No such volume contains all Ashes scorecards in chronological order in such an accessible way.
Whilst the fielders change ends between overs and during other momentary pauses in play, this reference book is ideal for leafing through. Although it is 90% facts and figures, there are brief comments which accompany each test match. Interesting facts include the following:
Don Bradman’s last-ever innings in test cricket in 1948
Graham Gooch’s baptism of fire in 1975
The test in 1989 when Australia batted all day without conceding a wicket
The peculiar batting partnership of Botham and Tavare at Old Trafford in 1981
The test in 1981 when Australia slid from 56-1 to 75-8
The ‘sixties test when debutant Tom Cartwright had to bowl 77 overs
The finely balanced test in 1975 that was ended by a vandalised pitch
The ‘fifties test when Australia were reduced to 32 for 7
The Melbourne nailbiters of 1974 and 1982
The Edgbaston and Old Trafford nailbiters of 2005

        WHO GIVES A TOSS?
         Who gives a toss about the toss of a coin at the start of the proceedings? Just how crucial is the flip of the coin in determining the subsequent proceedings? Let’s take a look at the Ashes test matches from 1945 to 2005 then. Well, the first obvious statistic to record is that Australia have won 85 tosses, while the England captains have only guessed correctly on 78 occasions, thereby reinforcing the Australian belief that the English are useless tossers. However, what is more noteworthy is the conversion rate of calling the coin correctly and then winning the ensuing test. Here one will find that the apparent advantage of choosing either to bat or field first isn’t all it is cracked up to be, or at least if it is of supreme importance, then the team that decides whether or not to bowl first hasn’t always made a sound judgement. Australia, for example, have won only 34 of their test matches after enjoying the luxury of choice at the outset. This represents only a forty per cent chance that an Australian success at the toss will be followed by triumph in the match itself. England cricket fans, grasping at all the comfort that they can muster, can thus console themselves that should Australia win the toss, post-war history has indicated that there is a 60% chance that they will not then win the match itself. However, the picture then looks bleak for England when one observes their success at converting successes at the toss into triumph in the ensuing test match. Perversely, England have won only 19 of the 78 Ashes test matches between 1945 and 2005 when their captain correctly envisaged how the coin would be flipped. This means that there is a 75 per cent likelihood that England will not actually derive any advantage from the coin ritual! In summary, I can only conclude that anyone who jumps to conclusions that a winning toss will lead to a winning test, all I can state from the evidence presented to me is that all Ashes observers need not get too excited about this flipping coin! 

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